Betting Edge

The PFT Model's read on every game — paired with the best price across sportsbooks to act on it

How to use this: The PFT Model's lean on every game is analysis, not a lock — historically ~50% against the closing spread, so the edge that compounds is price: each game lists the best number on both sides and the book offering it — take it. Mid is the gap between those two numbers; the wider it is, the bigger the middle — the range of final scores where both sides win.

PFT Model vs Market

Top Edges · Week 1 — biggest model vs market gaps + best price

ARI @ LAC4.6 pt gap

PFT vs mktPFT LAC -5.9 · mkt LAC -10.5

LeanARI +10.5

Best priceARI +11.5 -110best of 9

WinLAC 67% · mkt 78%

DEN @ KC4.5 pt gap

PFT vs mktPFT DEN -2.0 · mkt DEN +2.5

LeanDEN +2.5

Best priceDEN +3 -115best of 9

WinDEN 56% · mkt 43%

DAL @ NYG4.3 pt gap

PFT vs mktPFT NYG -2.3 · mkt NYG +2.0

LeanNYG +2.0

Best priceNYG +2.5 -102best of 9

WinNYG 57% · mkt 44%

GB @ MIN3.0 pt gap

PFT vs mktPFT MIN -2.0 · mkt MIN +1.0

LeanMIN +1.0

Best priceMIN +1.5 -110best of 9

WinMIN 56% · mkt 47%

SF @ LAR2.6 pt gap

PFT vs mktPFT LAR -6.1 · mkt LAR -3.5

LeanLAR -3.5

Best priceLAR -3 -120best of 9

WinLAR 67% · mkt 60%

BUF @ HOU2.5 pt gap

PFT vs mktPFT HOU -1.5 · mkt HOU +1.0

LeanHOU +1.0

Best priceHOU +1.5 -120best of 9

WinHOU 54% · mkt 47%

TB @ CIN2.5 pt gap

PFT vs mktPFT CIN -1.0 · mkt CIN -3.5

LeanTB +3.5

Best priceTB +4 -110best of 9

WinCIN 53% · mkt 60%

WAS @ PHI2.2 pt gap

PFT vs mktPFT PHI -6.7 · mkt PHI -4.5

LeanPHI -4.5

Best pricePHI -4 -110best of 9

WinPHI 69% · mkt 63%

Full Slate — every game, model read + best price

ARI @ LACLAC 67% · mkt 78%

PFT Model

PFT LAC -5.9 · mkt LAC -10.5

proj ARI 21 · LAC 27

leans ARI +10.5

◆ Mid 1.5

LAC -10 -110BetRivers

ARI +11.5 -110DraftKings

DEN @ KCDEN 56% · mkt 43%

PFT Model

PFT DEN -2.0 · mkt DEN +2.5

proj DEN 23 · KC 21

leans DEN +2.5

◆ Mid 1

KC -2 -120BetUS

DEN +3 -115BetMGM

DAL @ NYGNYG 57% · mkt 44%

PFT Model

PFT NYG -2.3 · mkt NYG +2.0

proj DAL 26 · NYG 29

leans NYG +2.0

◆ Mid 1

NYG +2.5 -102FanDuel

DAL -1.5 -115DraftKings

GB @ MINMIN 56% · mkt 47%

PFT Model

PFT MIN -2.0 · mkt MIN +1.0

proj GB 21 · MIN 23

leans MIN +1.0

◆ Mid 2.5

MIN +1.5 -110DraftKings

GB +1 -110MyBookie

SF @ LARLAR 67% · mkt 60%

PFT Model

PFT LAR -6.1 · mkt LAR -3.5

proj SF 23 · LAR 30

leans LAR -3.5

◆ Mid 0.5

LAR -3 -120DraftKings

SF +3.5 -110FanDuel

BUF @ HOUHOU 54% · mkt 47%

PFT Model

PFT HOU -1.5 · mkt HOU +1.0

proj BUF 22 · HOU 23

leans HOU +1.0

◆ Mid 0.5

HOU +1.5 -120DraftKings

BUF -1 -113BetRivers

TB @ CINCIN 53% · mkt 60%

PFT Model

PFT CIN -1.0 · mkt CIN -3.5

proj TB 30 · CIN 31

leans TB +3.5

◆ Mid 0.5

CIN -3.5 -110DraftKings

TB +4 -110MyBookie

WAS @ PHIPHI 69% · mkt 63%

PFT Model

PFT PHI -6.7 · mkt PHI -4.5

proj WAS 20 · PHI 27

leans PHI -4.5

◆ Mid 1.5

PHI -4 -110LowVig

WAS +5.5 -110DraftKings

MIA @ LVLV 53% · mkt 59%

PFT Model

PFT LV -1.1 · mkt LV -3.0

proj MIA 22 · LV 23

leans MIA +3.0

◆ Mid 0.5

LV -3 -120DraftKings

MIA +3.5 -102FanDuel

CLE @ JAXJAX 75% · mkt 71%

PFT Model

PFT JAX -9.3 · mkt JAX -7.5

proj CLE 13 · JAX 22

leans JAX -7.5

◆ Mid 0

JAX -7.5 -110DraftKings

CLE +7.5 -110DraftKings

NO @ DETDET 74% · mkt 70%

PFT Model

PFT DET -8.7 · mkt DET -7.0

proj NO 19 · DET 28

leans DET -7.0

◆ Mid 0.5

DET -7 -110DraftKings

NO +7.5 -117BetRivers

BAL @ INDBAL 56% · mkt 60%

PFT Model

PFT BAL -2.0 · mkt BAL -3.5

proj BAL 25 · IND 23

leans IND +3.5

◆ Mid 0.5

IND +4 -110MyBookie

BAL -3.5 -110DraftKings

CHI @ CARCHI 62% · mkt 57%

PFT Model

PFT CHI -4.0 · mkt CHI -2.5

proj CHI 25 · CAR 21

leans CHI -2.5

◆ Mid 0.5

CAR +2.5 -110DraftKings

CHI -2 -120BetUS

NYJ @ TENTEN 62% · mkt 57%

PFT Model

PFT TEN -4.0 · mkt TEN -2.5

proj NYJ 20 · TEN 24

leans TEN -2.5

◆ Mid 1

TEN -2 -120BetUS

NYJ +3 -105DraftKings

NE @ SEASEA 64% · mkt 62%

PFT Model

PFT SEA -4.7 · mkt SEA -4.0

proj NE 17 · SEA 22

leans SEA -4.0

◆ Mid 1

SEA -3.5 -115DraftKings

NE +4.5 -115FanDuel

ATL @ PITPIT 59% · mkt 59%

PFT Model

PFT PIT -2.9 · mkt PIT -3.0

proj ATL 19 · PIT 22

leans ATL +3.0

◆ Mid 0.5

PIT -2.5 -120FanDuel

ATL +3 +100DraftKings

Informational only. Model projections and posted prices are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice, picks for profit, or any guarantee of outcome. Lines move; confirm at the book before betting. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.